Win Rate
72.2%
13 wins · 5 losses
Trading Analytics
Behavioural study of 1,146 fills across 14 pairs · since 12 Mar 2024
Profit Factor
2.32
gross profit ÷ gross loss
Above 1.5 is healthy
Avg. Hold Time
128days
winners 164d · losers 36d
Cutting losses faster than winners
Expectancy
+$121
expected value per trade
Across 18 closed positions
Return Distribution
How individual trade outcomes are spread
Losses are tightly clustered between 0% and −15%, while wins extend well past +50%. That asymmetry — bounded downside, open upside — is what produces a profit factor of 2.32 despite only a 72% win rate.
- Largest win
- +111.2%
- Largest loss
- −28.3%
- Median trade
- +8.4%
- Std. deviation
- 32.6%
Discipline
Behavioural patterns worth watching
Last 18 trades
4 win streak
-
Cutting losses quickly
Losing trades held 36 days on average against 164 for winners — the opposite of the usual bias.
-
Overtrading after losses
Trade frequency rises 2.4× in the 48 hours following a loss, and those trades win only 48% of the time.
-
Consistent position sizing
Position sizes vary by only 18% around the mean — no evidence of revenge sizing.
-
Weekend trades underperform
Saturday and Sunday fills win 61% against 75% on weekdays, on thinner liquidity.
- Longest win streak
- 6 trades
- Longest loss streak
- 2 trades
- Current streak
- 4 wins
Trading Activity
Fills by hour and weekday, all times UTC
| Day | 00 | 03 | 06 | 09 | 12 | 15 | 18 | 21 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon | 5 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 22 | 20 | 31 | 34 | 19 | 35 | 33 | 31 | 21 | 19 | 13 | 11 | 3 | 6 | ||||||
| Tue | 7 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 19 | 22 | 33 | 31 | 21 | 32 | 35 | 33 | 18 | 21 | 10 | 13 | 5 | 3 | ||||||
| Wed | 4 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 21 | 19 | 35 | 33 | 18 | 34 | 32 | 35 | 20 | 18 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 5 | ||||||
| Thu | 6 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 18 | 21 | 32 | 35 | 20 | 31 | 34 | 32 | 22 | 20 | 9 | 12 | 4 | 7 | ||||||
| Fri | 3 | 6 | 4 | 13 | 20 | 18 | 34 | 32 | 22 | 33 | 31 | 34 | 19 | 22 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 4 | ||||||
| Sat | 4 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 4 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 5 | |||||||||||
| Sun | 6 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 7 |
Busiest hour
14:00 UTC
US open overlap
Busiest day
Wednesday
218 fills
Weekend share
12%
lower win rate
Overnight fills
6%
00:00–06:00 UTC
Performance by Pair
Where your edge actually is
| Pair | Trades | Win Rate | Avg. Return | Total P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
SOL / USDT
|
5 | 80% | +28.4% | +$2,340 |
BTC / USDT
|
4 | 75% | +18.2% | +$1,842 |
ETH / USDT
|
3 | 100% | +21.6% | +$997 |
AVAX / USDT
|
2 | 100% | +58.2% | +$442 |
DOGE / USDT
|
2 | 0% | −12.4% | −$190 |
APT / USDT
|
1 | 0% | −28.3% | −$262 |
XRP / USDT
|
1 | 0% | −12.5% | −$106 |
| All pairs | 18 | 72% | +13.6% | +$2,185 |
Your edge is concentrated in the majors and SOL. Every loss came from a small-cap position — DOGE, APT and XRP account for all four losing trades between them.
Best pair
AVAX
+58.2% avg
Worst pair
APT
−28.3% avg
Majors share
67%
of total P&L
Pairs traded
7
4 profitable
Hold Time vs Return
Does patience pay?
Every losing trade was closed inside 100 days, while the best outcomes came from positions held past six months. That is consistent with letting winners run — though it may also mean short trades are being entered less carefully.
- Correlation
- +0.62 · moderate
- Best hold band
- 180d+ · +64% avg
- Worst hold band
- under 30d · −9% avg