Bull case
24%
$83,200
+23.4%
ETF inflows accelerate and the market holds above $70K, triggering momentum buying into a supply-constrained market.
AI Price Prediction
Probabilistic forecasts with confidence intervals · model retrained 2 days ago · backtested on 4 years of data
Forecasts are not advice. These are probabilistic model outputs, not predictions of what will happen. The shaded band shows the 80% confidence interval — the actual price falls outside it roughly one time in five. Past backtested accuracy does not guarantee future results.
Bitcoin Forecast
+1.92%$67,420.00
Actual price
Base case forecast
80% confidence interval
30-Day Scenarios
Three outcomes with assigned probabilities
Base case
52%
$72,400
+7.4%
Current trend continues at a moderated pace. Funding stays neutral and volatility remains within its recent range.
Bear case
24%
$61,800
−8.3%
Leveraged longs unwind as funding rates stay elevated, triggering a cascade back toward the 200-day average.
Backtest Accuracy
How often the actual price landed inside the interval
Within interval
Expected 80%
Short-horizon intervals are slightly conservative — 84% coverage against a nominal 80% means the band is wider than strictly needed. At 90 days coverage drops to 71%, so treat long-horizon forecasts with more caution than the interval alone suggests.
Median error by horizon
7 days
2.2%
30 days
4.8%
90 days
9.1%
Absolute deviation of the base case from the settled price. Error roughly quadruples between the 7- and 90-day horizons.
Miss direction
Forecast too high
54%
Forecast too low
46%
Bias
Slight
- 7-day coverage
- 84%
- 30-day coverage
- 79%
- 90-day coverage
- 71%
- Median error (30d)
- 4.8%
Other Assets
30-day base case
| Asset | Now | Forecast | Change | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
ETH
|
$3,142.80 | $3,480.00 | +10.7% | 81% |
SOL
|
$148.20 | $164.00 | +10.7% | 68% |
BNB
|
$580.10 | $596.00 | +2.7% | 64% |
LINK
|
$14.68 | $16.40 | +11.7% | 76% |
XRP
|
$0.6140 | $0.5720 | −6.8% | 69% |
AVAX
|
$36.85 | $41.20 | +11.8% | 62% |
ATOM
|
$9.14 | $9.36 | +2.4% | 54% |
About these forecasts
- Model
- Ensemble · 3 estimators
- Training window
- 4 years, daily
- Features
- Price, volume, on-chain, funding
- Last retrained
- 2 days ago
- Refresh cadence
- Every 4 hours
Confidence reflects agreement between estimators. Assets below 65% show meaningful disagreement and should be treated as low-conviction.
7 assets forecast
3 low-conviction