AI Market Analysis
Top-down market interpretation · updated 8 minutes ago · next run in 52m
Current Market Regime
Risk-OnBreadth has improved with 68% of the top 100 above their 50-day average, and altcoin correlation to BTC has loosened from 0.91 to 0.74 — historically a sign that capital is rotating outward rather than consolidating into majors. Volatility remains contained.
Regime Classifier · 81% confidence · in this regime 18 days
Confidence
81%
Market breadth
68%
above 50-day MA
BTC correlation
0.74
down from 0.91
Realised volatility
2.84%
30-day, contained
Regime duration
18 days
avg. 24 days
Regime Confidence
Risk-on versus risk-off over 90 days
- Regime changes (90d)
- 3
- Longest regime
- Risk-on · 34 days
- Classifier accuracy
- 76.8%
Regime Playbook
How to position while risk-on holds
-
Add on pullbacks
Breadth at 68% means dips have been bought. Scale in rather than chasing strength.
-
Trail stops, don't tighten
Realised volatility at 2.84% is contained — tight stops get taken out by noise.
-
Watch funding above 0.03%
Leverage is already building. Crowded longs are how this regime usually ends.
- Suggested exposure
- Moderately long
- Regime invalidated below
- Breadth 50% · confidence 60%
Key Drivers
What is moving the market
-
ETF inflows accelerating
$1.8B net inflow over five sessions, the strongest run since March.
Impact High -
Stablecoin supply expanding
USDT and USDC supply up 3.2% this month — dry powder entering the system.
Impact Medium -
Funding rates elevated
Perpetual funding above 0.02% across majors — leverage is building on the long side.
Impact Medium -
Macro backdrop neutral
Rate expectations stable and DXY range-bound. Little external pressure either way.
Impact Low -
Exchange reserves declining
BTC held on exchanges at a 6-year low — supply moving to self-custody reduces immediate sell pressure.
Impact High
- Net driver bias
- Bullish
- Drivers tracked
- 24
- Last recalculated
- 8 minutes ago
Correlation Matrix
30-day price correlation between majors
| Asset | BTC | ETH | SOL | BNB | XRP | LINK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 1.00 | 0.87 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.42 | 0.71 |
| ETH | 0.87 | 1.00 | 0.82 | 0.71 | 0.38 | 0.79 |
| SOL | 0.74 | 0.82 | 1.00 | 0.56 | 0.18 | 0.68 |
| BNB | 0.68 | 0.71 | 0.56 | 1.00 | 0.44 | 0.52 |
| XRP | 0.42 | 0.38 | 0.18 | 0.44 | 1.00 | −0.12 |
| LINK | 0.71 | 0.79 | 0.68 | 0.52 | −0.12 | 1.00 |
Your holdings average 0.61 correlation — moderate. BTC and ETH move nearly together at 0.87, so holding both provides less diversification than the position count suggests. XRP is the genuine diversifier here.
- Most correlated
- BTC ↔ ETH · 0.87
- Least correlated
- XRP ↔ LINK · −0.12
- Portfolio avg.
- 0.61 · moderate
- Diversification score
- Fair · 62 / 100
Sector Rotation
Where capital is moving this month
- Gaining share
- AI, DePIN, Layer 2
- Losing share
- Gaming, Privacy
- Rotation strength
- Moderate
Sector Leaders
Biggest mover in each sector
| Sector | Leader | 30d |
|---|---|---|
| AI & Big Data | TAO | +18.4% |
| DePIN | HNT | +12.1% |
| Layer 2 | ARB | +7.6% |
| DeFi | AAVE | +2.3% |
| Privacy | XMR | −6.8% |
| Gaming | IMX | −11.2% |
- Leaders outperforming sector
- 4 of 6
- Widest sector spread
- AI · 18.4pp